The value provided by a scientific explanation

Link (Springer)

In this essay we investigate how deductive and probabilistic explanations add value to the theory providing the explanation. We offer an analysis of how, e.g., an explanation in the form of an abduction differs from a mere prediction in this regard. We apply this analysis to respond to a challenge posed by Glymour (Theory and Evidence. Princeton University Press, Princeton, 1980) regarding Bayesian confirmation of new theories using old data. Last, we consider additional criteria involving subjunctive conditionals and counterfactual conditionals for distinguishing explanations from mere predictions, which help illuminate why an explanation carries different cognitive value than does a mere prediction.